Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 49.3% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 54.5%
Defensive zone
Blackwell 94.6%
Neutral zone
Blackwell 76.7%
Result
Colin Blackwell favored at 61.7%
61.7%
38.3%
Blackwell
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Blackwell
O'Reilly
Last 8: Blackwell 1-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
5
Blackwell
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Blackwell
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Blackwell
1
0
Blackwell
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (184)
56.2% (983)
-7.8%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
55.5% (254)
+11.2%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (121)
52.0% (102)
-2.4%
On power play, Blackwell has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Blackwell is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Blackwell shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Blackwell
O'Reilly
Home
41.7% (151)
56.2% (697)
Away
56.1% (157)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Blackwell
O'Reilly
P1
46.5%
54.5%
P2
52.4%
55.5%
P3
48.5%
57.1%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
44.0%▬
44.5%
49.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 17:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 06:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 14:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 03:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 02:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 02:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 13:29 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |