Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Blackwell wins 44.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 48.2% vs Hertl 56.8% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 56.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 65.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 57.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 65.2%
34.8%
65.2%
Blackwell
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Blackwell
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Blackwell
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (52)
57.0% (718)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (18)
44.2% (77)
-10.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Blackwell is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (65).
Blackwell shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Blackwell
Hertl
Home
41.9% (31)
59.2% (463)
Away
48.7% (39)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Blackwell
Hertl
P1
47.1%
56.3%
P2
50.0%
55.4%
P3
41.4%
60.5%
Final 5 min
57.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
44.0%▬
44.5%
45.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |