Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Blackwell wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 47.7% vs Hertl 54.2% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 61.3%
Defensive zone
Blackwell 74.1%
Neutral zone
Blackwell 56.7%
Result
Colin Blackwell favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Blackwell
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Blackwell
Hertl
Last 10: Blackwell 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Blackwell
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Blackwell
6
2
Blackwell
Hertl
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Blackwell
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (698)
53.8% (8,268)
-4.7%
Power Play
63.2% (38)
59.3% (1,975)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
40.8% (260)
46.3% (806)
-5.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Blackwell is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (791).
Blackwell shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Blackwell
Hertl
Home
45.8% (480)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
49.0% (516)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Blackwell
Hertl
P1
47.1%
53.6%
P2
47.7%
54.1%
P3
47.6%
55.3%
OT
50.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
52.4%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
44.0%▬
44.5%
47.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 15:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:42 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 02:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 10:48 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:08 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 15:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:18 | Offensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:09 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 09:32 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |