Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Blackwell wins 39.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 44.7% vs Hertl 57.2% (-15.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 56.6%
Defensive zone
Blackwell 91.2%
Neutral zone
Blackwell 73.5%
Result
Colin Blackwell favored at 63.5%
63.5%
36.5%
Blackwell
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Blackwell
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Blackwell
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Blackwell
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (172)
58.1% (823)
-9.8%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
56.2% (265)
-56.2%
Penalty Kill
31.7% (82)
62.9% (35)
-31.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +56.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Blackwell is 39.8% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Blackwell shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Blackwell
Hertl
Home
43.8% (144)
59.7% (561)
Away
41.1% (112)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Blackwell
Hertl
P1
45.3%
51.6%
P2
36.1%
63.8%
P3
46.0%
58.6%
Final 5 min
49.3%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
44.0%▬
44.5%
42.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 15:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |