Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +16.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Brown wins 36.7% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brown 42.1% vs Larkin 52.1% (-16.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Brown 79.2%
Defensive zone
Brown 85.5%
Neutral zone
Brown 82.9%
Result
Connor Brown favored at 81.2%
81.2%
18.8%
Brown
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Brown
Larkin
Last 7: Brown 1-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
4
Brown
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Brown
Larkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Brown
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brown
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
40.9% (44)
51.8% (903)
-10.9%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
56.0% (225)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (87)
47.4% (76)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Brown is 36.7% vs left-shot opponents (90).
Brown shoots right. Larkin is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (483).
Home / Away
Brown
Larkin
Home
40.0% (55)
55.6% (662)
Away
33.3% (78)
48.3% (542)
By Period
Brown
Larkin
P1
37.8%
49.9%
P2
35.4%
52.7%
P3
34.8%
53.0%
OT
50.0%
68.0%
Final 5 min
25.9%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brown
26.0%▼
34.0%
36.1%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 2 | 08:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 10:07 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 2 | 19:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 2 | 11:17 | Neutral | Connor Brown |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 2 | 01:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |