Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +14.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Brown wins 37.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Brown 40.1% vs Larkin 52.7% (-14.4%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Brown 91.3%
Defensive zone
Brown 88.0%
Neutral zone
Brown 89.4%
Result
Connor Brown favored at 89.9%
89.9%
10.1%
Brown
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
Brown
Larkin
Last 10: Brown 1-9 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
5
Brown
Larkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
3
Brown
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Brown
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Brown
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
38.7% (313)
51.7% (9,019)
-13.0%
Power Play
36.8% (19)
58.5% (2,125)
-21.7%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (217)
50.2% (1,122)
-12.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Brown is 37.5% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Brown shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Home / Away
Brown
Larkin
Home
41.5% (246)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
35.6% (303)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Brown
Larkin
P1
35.3%
52.7%
P2
40.6%
53.1%
P3
38.6%
52.1%
OT
37.5%
58.4%
Final 5 min
37.6%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Brown
26.0%▼
34.0%
38.3%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 16:49 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 2 | 08:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 10:07 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 2 | 19:52 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 2 | 11:17 | Neutral | Connor Brown |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 2 | 01:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 1 | 13:38 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 2 | 15:50 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |