Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dewar wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 45.5% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 77.2%
Defensive zone
Dewar 66.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Dewar
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Dewar
O'Reilly
Last 6: Dewar 3-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Dewar
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
3
0
Dewar
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (1,008)
56.2% (15,260)
-10.8%
Power Play
60.9% (23)
58.8% (3,445)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
41.8% (194)
51.4% (2,811)
-9.6%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Dewar is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (822).
Dewar shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Dewar
O'Reilly
Home
43.4% (588)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
46.8% (637)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Dewar
O'Reilly
P1
43.9%
55.6%
P2
47.1%
57.0%
P3
44.3%
55.1%
OT
0.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
45.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:23 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 07:44 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 01:11 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 10:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |