Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dewar wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 47.5% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 87.3%
Defensive zone
Dewar 58.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 61.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 60.1%
39.9%
60.1%
Dewar
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dewar
O'Reilly
Last 5: Dewar 3-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Dewar
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
3
0
Dewar
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (331)
55.0% (1,084)
-8.8%
Power Play
45.5% (11)
56.8% (303)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (68)
40.3% (149)
+9.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Dewar is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Dewar shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Dewar
O'Reilly
Home
43.9% (189)
54.8% (759)
Away
49.3% (221)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Dewar
O'Reilly
P1
50.4%
55.3%
P2
50.0%
51.9%
P3
40.8%
54.2%
Final 5 min
52.0%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
46.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:23 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 07:44 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 01:11 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 10:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |