Scouting Report
Steven Lorentz holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Dewar wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 45.1% vs Lorentz 48.2% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dewar 53.6%
Defensive zone
Dewar 61.5%
Neutral zone
Dewar 60.2%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Dewar
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Dewar
Lorentz
Last 6: Dewar 2-4 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
2
Dewar
Lorentz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dewar
Lorentz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dewar
Lorentz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (443)
48.3% (497)
-2.9%
Power Play
75.0% (8)
63.6% (11)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
28.8% (52)
38.5% (39)
-9.7%
On power play, Dewar has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Dewar is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (333).
Dewar shoots left. Lorentz is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
Dewar
Lorentz
Home
43.3% (238)
50.4% (238)
Away
44.9% (265)
46.0% (309)
By Period
Dewar
Lorentz
P1
41.7%
49.1%
P2
46.1%
48.0%
P3
44.4%
47.2%
Final 5 min
44.4%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
44.1%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:45 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 02:23 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 02:13 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 06:09 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 19:46 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 1 | 02:20 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |