Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Henrique wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 54.6% vs McDavid 48.1% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 74.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 69.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 73.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 72.7%
27.3%
72.7%
Henrique
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Henrique
McDavid
Last 5: Henrique 1-4 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
1
Henrique
McDavid
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
1
Henrique
McDavid
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
2
Henrique
McDavid
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (740)
46.9% (633)
+6.6%
Power Play
65.9% (132)
69.2% (26)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (57)
45.5% (11)
+5.4%
On even strength, Henrique has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Henrique is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (578).
Henrique shoots left. McDavid is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (450).
Home / Away
Henrique
McDavid
Home
57.4% (467)
49.9% (353)
Away
52.7% (463)
45.4% (317)
By Period
Henrique
McDavid
P1
55.4%
46.6%
P2
56.7%
50.9%
P3
54.0%
45.9%
OT
22.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.1%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2020 | 1 | 17:18 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 10, 2019 | 2 | 07:45 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Nov 10, 2019 | 2 | 00:31 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 10, 2019 | 1 | 05:17 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 10, 2019 | 1 | 05:08 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |