Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 55.1% vs McDavid 42.2% (+14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 72.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 69.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 73.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 71.8%
28.2%
71.8%
Lowry
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Lowry
McDavid
Last 9: Lowry 2-7 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
2
Lowry
McDavid
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
3
Lowry
McDavid
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
McDavid
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
59.0% (527)
41.4% (855)
+17.6%
Power Play
44.2% (43)
47.8% (23)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (101)
35.5% (31)
+9.1%
On even strength, Lowry has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Lowry is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (401).
Lowry shoots left. McDavid is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Home / Away
Lowry
McDavid
Home
57.9% (330)
42.8% (451)
Away
54.0% (341)
40.0% (458)
By Period
Lowry
McDavid
P1
55.8%
38.0%
P2
55.8%
44.9%
P3
56.1%
41.7%
OT
50.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
62.2%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.9%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
41.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2017 | 3 | 03:48 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 27, 2017 | 3 | 01:26 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 27, 2017 | 2 | 11:46 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 27, 2017 | 1 | 08:12 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 9, 2017 | 3 | 13:32 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 9, 2017 | 3 | 09:54 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 9, 2017 | 3 | 04:12 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 9, 2017 | 3 | 00:37 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 9, 2017 | 1 | 04:23 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |