Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs McDavid 47.9% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 82.7%
Defensive zone
Lowry 66.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 63.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 60.6%
39.4%
60.6%
Lowry
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Lowry
McDavid
Last 7: Lowry 2-5 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
2
Lowry
McDavid
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
McDavid
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
2
Lowry
McDavid
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
47.7% (715)
+6.0%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
51.9% (52)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
22.2% (9)
+20.5%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Lowry is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (840).
Lowry shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
Home / Away
Lowry
McDavid
Home
53.0% (583)
47.3% (387)
Away
50.6% (605)
48.1% (389)
By Period
Lowry
McDavid
P1
52.1%
47.6%
P2
51.8%
50.0%
P3
52.3%
45.0%
Final 5 min
53.9%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 15:12 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:30 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 01:58 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 18:23 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 10:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 14:56 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |