Scouting Report
Boone Jenner holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Jenner wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.8% vs McDavid 47.0% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 89.1%
Defensive zone
McDavid 76.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 82.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 89.1%
10.9%
89.1%
Jenner
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Jenner
McDavid
Last 5: Jenner 0-5 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
5
Jenner
McDavid
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (923)
46.9% (862)
+7.4%
Power Play
57.4% (101)
42.1% (38)
+15.3%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (133)
44.4% (18)
+6.0%
On power play, Jenner has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Jenner is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Jenner shoots left. McDavid is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Jenner
McDavid
Home
54.1% (575)
47.9% (478)
Away
54.1% (582)
45.2% (440)
By Period
Jenner
McDavid
P1
54.1%
45.9%
P2
53.1%
47.7%
P3
54.9%
46.6%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.2%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
54.1%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2019 | 3 | 10:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 1 | 15:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 1 | 15:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 2, 2019 | 1 | 18:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 2, 2019 | 1 | 06:11 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |