Chandler Stephenson vs Connor McDavid
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Chandler Stephenson holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stephenson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs McDavid 47.9% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stephenson 72.2%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 93.2%
Neutral zone
Stephenson 77.8%
Result
Chandler Stephenson favored at 88.1%
88.1%
11.9%
Stephenson
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
Stephenson
McDavid
Last 6: Stephenson 6-0 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
4
0
Stephenson
McDavid
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stephenson
2
0
Stephenson
McDavid
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (801)
47.5% (650)
+4.6%
Power Play
62.0% (242)
48.6% (72)
+13.4%
Penalty Kill
39.9% (183)
46.5% (43)
-6.6%
On power play, Stephenson has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Stephenson is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (751).
Stephenson shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Home / Away
Stephenson
McDavid
Home
53.1% (672)
50.2% (400)
Away
51.1% (554)
44.7% (365)
By Period
Stephenson
McDavid
P1
54.6%
47.5%
P2
51.3%
48.6%
P3
51.2%
46.7%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
56.0%▲
52.5%
52.2%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:40 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 10:29 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 10:22 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:10 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 09:08 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:15 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |