Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Larkin 52.3% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 68.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 71.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 70.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
McDavid
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
McDavid
Larkin
Last 8: McDavid 2-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
4
McDavid
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (633)
51.0% (973)
-4.1%
Power Play
69.2% (26)
59.5% (252)
+9.7%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (11)
49.6% (137)
-4.1%
On power play, McDavid has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McDavid is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (450).
McDavid shoots left. Larkin is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (851).
Home / Away
McDavid
Larkin
Home
49.9% (353)
54.9% (721)
Away
45.4% (317)
49.6% (641)
By Period
McDavid
Larkin
P1
46.6%
52.4%
P2
50.9%
50.8%
P3
45.9%
54.4%
OT
0.0%
43.8%
Final 5 min
50.4%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.8%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2019 | 3 | 16:43 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 02:55 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 02:46 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 06:41 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 00:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2019 | 3 | 04:20 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2019 | 1 | 09:27 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 18, 2019 | 1 | 01:05 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |