Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Larkin 52.1% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 54.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 57.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 53.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
McDavid
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
McDavid
Larkin
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
3
McDavid
Larkin
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
51.8% (903)
+2.5%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
56.0% (225)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
47.4% (76)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Larkin is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (721).
Home / Away
McDavid
Larkin
Home
53.6% (507)
55.6% (662)
Away
53.8% (539)
48.3% (542)
By Period
McDavid
Larkin
P1
52.6%
49.9%
P2
54.1%
52.7%
P3
54.9%
53.0%
OT
44.4%
68.0%
Final 5 min
52.2%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 15:22 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 13:45 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 08:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 2 | 03:37 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 01:58 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 00:05 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 06:14 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 02:35 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |