Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Larkin 55.0% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 12-12 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 52.6%
Defensive zone
Larkin 50.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
McDavid
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
12
(24 meetings)
12
12
McDavid
Larkin
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
3
McDavid
Larkin
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
3
4
McDavid
Larkin
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
5
McDavid
Larkin
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
55.9% (943)
-4.3%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
57.4% (244)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
46.2% (106)
-9.8%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
McDavid
Larkin
Home
51.8% (415)
56.0% (654)
Away
50.4% (450)
54.8% (639)
By Period
McDavid
Larkin
P1
47.5%
54.4%
P2
51.6%
55.9%
P3
55.5%
55.2%
OT
50.0%
64.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:41 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:11 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:15 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 19:55 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 12:47 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 05:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 19:48 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 08:19 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 06:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 01:08 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 17:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:47 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |