Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (58% H2H, 31 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Larkin 52.7% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 57-47 in 104 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 62.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 64.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 63.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
McDavid
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
47
-
57
(104 meetings)
47
57
McDavid
Larkin
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
13
18
McDavid
Larkin
31 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
16
18
McDavid
Larkin
34 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
18
21
McDavid
Larkin
39 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
51.7% (9,019)
-4.0%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
58.5% (2,125)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
50.2% (1,122)
-6.8%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Home / Away
McDavid
Larkin
Home
49.3% (4,570)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
McDavid
Larkin
P1
46.5%
52.7%
P2
48.7%
53.1%
P3
48.3%
52.1%
OT
40.9%
58.4%
Final 5 min
50.1%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:05 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 12:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:34 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 03:58 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 09:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 08:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 01:17 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 11:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 11:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 04:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 14:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 14:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |