Connor McDavid vs Dylan Larkin

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Dylan Larkin holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (58% H2H, 31 meetings).

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) McDavid 47.8% vs Larkin 52.7% (-5.0%)
H2H factor Larkin leads 57-47 in 104 meetings
Offensive zone McDavid 62.9%
Defensive zone McDavid 64.6%
Neutral zone McDavid 63.2%
Result Connor McDavid favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
McDavid Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
47 - 57 (104 meetings)
47
57
McDavid Larkin
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Larkin

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
13
18
McDavid Larkin
31 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
16
18
McDavid Larkin
34 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
18
21
McDavid Larkin
39 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
McDavid
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
51.7% (9,019)
-4.0%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
58.5% (2,125)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
50.2% (1,122)
-6.8%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +6.8% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Home / Away
McDavid
Larkin
Home
49.3% (4,570)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
McDavid
Larkin
P1
46.5%
52.7%
P2
48.7%
53.1%
P3
48.3%
52.1%
OT
40.9%
58.4%
Final 5 min
50.1%
53.2%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%
50.0%
47.7%
Larkin
54.0%
49.5%
52.7%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Dec 11, 2025 3 17:05 Defensive Connor McDavid
Dec 11, 2025 3 12:46 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Dec 11, 2025 3 09:37 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Dec 11, 2025 2 13:34 Offensive Connor McDavid
Oct 19, 2025 3 03:58 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Oct 19, 2025 3 03:38 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Oct 19, 2025 3 00:06 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Oct 19, 2025 3 00:00 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Oct 19, 2025 2 09:32 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Oct 19, 2025 2 08:46 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Oct 19, 2025 2 08:40 Defensive Connor McDavid
Oct 19, 2025 2 01:17 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Oct 19, 2025 1 00:00 Neutral Connor McDavid
Jan 30, 2025 3 19:36 Offensive Connor McDavid
Jan 30, 2025 3 11:57 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 30, 2025 3 11:32 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 30, 2025 3 04:31 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 30, 2025 2 05:38 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 30, 2025 1 14:43 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 30, 2025 1 14:38 Offensive Connor McDavid