Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Larkin 54.1% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 54.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 65.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 61.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 59.6%
59.6%
40.4%
McDavid
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
McDavid
Larkin
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
4
McDavid
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Larkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
53.6% (886)
-2.1%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
59.3% (317)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
48.7% (152)
+2.5%
On power play, McDavid has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Home / Away
McDavid
Larkin
Home
50.7% (513)
56.6% (700)
Away
53.2% (498)
52.1% (655)
By Period
McDavid
Larkin
P1
52.3%
55.4%
P2
51.6%
54.7%
P3
51.7%
52.7%
OT
100.0%
59.1%
Final 5 min
56.5%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2023 | 2 | 16:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 18:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 15, 2023 | 1 | 01:11 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 04:06 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 06:27 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 19:35 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 19:29 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 00:05 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |