Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Larkin 54.2% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 65.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 66.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 66.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 66.0%
66.0%
34.0%
McDavid
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
McDavid
Larkin
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
McDavid
Larkin
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
5
McDavid
Larkin
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
52.6% (1,117)
-4.9%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
60.7% (305)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
55.9% (177)
-33.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +33.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Home / Away
McDavid
Larkin
Home
47.3% (387)
54.7% (783)
Away
48.1% (389)
54.3% (816)
By Period
McDavid
Larkin
P1
47.6%
55.9%
P2
50.0%
56.1%
P3
45.0%
51.1%
Final 5 min
46.8%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 11:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 11:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 04:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 14:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 14:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 10:29 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 06:07 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 3 | 02:27 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 10:58 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 2 | 05:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 19:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 11:24 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |