Connor McDavid vs Dylan Larkin

2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Dylan Larkin holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) McDavid 47.9% vs Larkin 54.2% (-6.8%)
H2H factor Larkin leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone McDavid 65.4%
Defensive zone McDavid 66.4%
Neutral zone McDavid 66.1%
Result Connor McDavid favored at 66.0%
66.0%
34.0%
McDavid Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
6 - 9 (15 meetings)
6
9
McDavid Larkin
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Larkin

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
McDavid Larkin
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
5
McDavid Larkin
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid Larkin
2 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
McDavid
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
52.6% (1,117)
-4.9%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
60.7% (305)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
55.9% (177)
-33.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +33.7% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Home / Away
McDavid
Larkin
Home
47.3% (387)
54.7% (783)
Away
48.1% (389)
54.3% (816)
By Period
McDavid
Larkin
P1
47.6%
55.9%
P2
50.0%
56.1%
P3
45.0%
51.1%
Final 5 min
46.8%
51.8%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%
50.0%
47.7%
Larkin
54.0%
49.5%
54.5%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Jan 30, 2025 3 19:36 Offensive Connor McDavid
Jan 30, 2025 3 11:57 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 30, 2025 3 11:32 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 30, 2025 3 04:31 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 30, 2025 2 05:38 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 30, 2025 1 14:43 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 30, 2025 1 14:38 Offensive Connor McDavid
Jan 30, 2025 1 10:29 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Jan 30, 2025 1 06:07 Offensive Connor McDavid
Jan 30, 2025 1 00:38 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Oct 27, 2024 3 02:27 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Oct 27, 2024 2 10:58 Neutral Connor McDavid
Oct 27, 2024 2 05:34 Defensive Connor McDavid
Oct 27, 2024 1 19:21 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Oct 27, 2024 1 11:24 Defensive Connor McDavid