Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Hughes 39.8% (+11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 71.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 77.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 59.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 77.5%
77.5%
22.5%
McDavid
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
McDavid
Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Hughes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
36.8% (266)
+10.7%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
14.3% (7)
+34.3%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
33.3% (6)
+13.2%
On power play, McDavid has a +34.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Hughes is 33.9% vs left-shot opponents (189).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hughes
Home
50.2% (400)
35.1% (148)
Away
44.7% (365)
37.4% (131)
By Period
McDavid
Hughes
P1
47.5%
43.0%
P2
48.6%
28.7%
P3
46.7%
35.2%
Final 5 min
51.3%
28.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 05:30 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |