Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Hughes 36.6% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 14-1 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 77.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 96.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 93.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 91.6%
91.6%
8.4%
McDavid
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
1
(15 meetings)
14
1
McDavid
Hughes
Last 10: McDavid 10-0 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Hughes
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
0
McDavid
Hughes
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
7
0
McDavid
Hughes
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
36.0% (2,887)
+11.7%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
38.8% (224)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
31.0% (42)
+12.4%
On power play, McDavid has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. Hughes is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,931).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hughes
Home
49.3% (4,570)
36.8% (1,670)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
35.4% (1,483)
By Period
McDavid
Hughes
P1
46.5%
36.9%
P2
48.7%
33.6%
P3
48.3%
38.1%
OT
40.9%
37.5%
Final 5 min
50.1%
34.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 05:30 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 09:26 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 11:42 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 18:36 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 16:52 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 12:10 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 07:25 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 03:13 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2021 | 3 | 03:50 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2021 | 3 | 02:03 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2021 | 2 | 11:10 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2021 | 1 | 05:05 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2019 | 1 | 14:46 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 8, 2019 | 1 | 07:46 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |