Connor McDavid vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.5%). Look for Kotkaniemi on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Kotkaniemi 51.3% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 54.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 56.3%
Neutral zone
McDavid 50.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
1
2
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
0
1
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
51.7% (586)
-0.1%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
48.1% (52)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
62.5% (8)
-26.1%
On penalty kill, Kotkaniemi has a +26.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (463).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
Home
51.8% (415)
49.5% (313)
Away
50.4% (450)
53.5% (333)
By Period
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
P1
47.5%
54.5%
P2
51.6%
51.1%
P3
55.5%
49.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 13:37 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 1 | 01:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 09:52 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 06:43 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |