Connor McDavid vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.6% vs 47.9%). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Kotkaniemi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Kotkaniemi 48.6% (-0.3%)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 54.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 53.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 55.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
47.3% (207)
+0.2%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
100.0% (3)
-51.4%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
33.3% (3)
+13.2%
On power play, Kotkaniemi has a +51.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (116).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
Home
50.2% (400)
46.5% (129)
Away
44.7% (365)
50.0% (84)
By Period
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
P1
47.5%
51.3%
P2
48.6%
46.1%
P3
46.7%
45.9%
Final 5 min
51.3%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
47.9%