Connor McDavid vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jesperi Kotkaniemi holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kotkaniemi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Kotkaniemi 51.5% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 54.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 55.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 54.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
0
1
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
52.8% (670)
-5.1%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
37.5% (32)
+14.4%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
14.3% (7)
+7.9%
On power play, McDavid has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
Home
47.3% (387)
52.5% (366)
Away
48.1% (389)
51.0% (343)
By Period
McDavid
Kotkaniemi
P1
47.6%
53.8%
P2
50.0%
49.2%
P3
45.0%
52.6%
Final 5 min
46.8%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 19:35 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 12:50 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 05:12 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |