Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). McDavid wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 42.5% vs Tavares 53.8% (-12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 76.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 81.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 76.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 76.5%
76.5%
23.5%
McDavid
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
McDavid
Tavares
Last 9: McDavid 2-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
6
McDavid
Tavares
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (578)
54.0% (1,077)
-13.3%
Power Play
56.3% (16)
54.5% (275)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
50.0% (18)
+0.0%
On even strength, Tavares has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. McDavid is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (363).
McDavid shoots left. Tavares is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (894).
Home / Away
McDavid
Tavares
Home
42.7% (323)
56.8% (655)
Away
39.5% (281)
51.6% (715)
By Period
McDavid
Tavares
P1
42.3%
54.1%
P2
37.3%
53.9%
P3
43.4%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
54.2%
Final 5 min
36.8%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
41.2%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2016 | 2 | 07:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 7, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 7, 2016 | 2 | 09:36 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 7, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 7, 2016 | 1 | 14:53 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 7, 2016 | 1 | 11:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 7, 2016 | 1 | 11:24 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 7, 2016 | 1 | 02:57 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 7, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |