Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Tavares 57.7% (-10.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 53.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 51.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 50.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
McDavid
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
McDavid
Tavares
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
1
McDavid
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
McDavid
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
4
McDavid
Tavares
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
57.7% (998)
-10.0%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
60.5% (271)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
56.4% (39)
-34.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +34.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Home / Away
McDavid
Tavares
Home
47.3% (387)
59.7% (610)
Away
48.1% (389)
57.0% (698)
By Period
McDavid
Tavares
P1
47.6%
57.2%
P2
50.0%
58.5%
P3
45.0%
59.4%
Final 5 min
46.8%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 03:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:18 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:32 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:49 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 10:00 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 07:22 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 00:59 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 16:16 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 13:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 07:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |