Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Tavares 57.7% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 89.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 57.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 87.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 62.3%
37.7%
62.3%
McDavid
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
McDavid
Tavares
Last 6: McDavid 5-1 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
0
McDavid
Tavares
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
McDavid
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
57.5% (914)
-6.0%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
60.5% (309)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
59.1% (22)
-7.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. McDavid is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (654).
McDavid shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Home / Away
McDavid
Tavares
Home
50.7% (513)
61.0% (661)
Away
53.2% (498)
55.3% (584)
By Period
McDavid
Tavares
P1
52.3%
58.6%
P2
51.6%
57.8%
P3
51.7%
58.4%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.5%
63.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 04:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 18:10 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 18:03 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 04:58 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 05:21 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 13:53 | Neutral | John Tavares |