Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Tavares 58.7% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 88.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 66.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 85.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 82.7%
17.3%
82.7%
McDavid
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
McDavid
Tavares
Last 9: McDavid 7-2 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Tavares
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
59.2% (1,035)
-7.6%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
60.0% (310)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
42.9% (7)
-6.5%
On power play, Tavares has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
McDavid
Tavares
Home
51.8% (415)
57.5% (668)
Away
50.4% (450)
61.1% (684)
By Period
McDavid
Tavares
P1
47.5%
58.0%
P2
51.6%
60.1%
P3
55.5%
61.0%
OT
50.0%
27.8%
Final 5 min
50.5%
60.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 12:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 02:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 06:37 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 03:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 10:58 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 10:45 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 07:05 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 04:17 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 2 | 12:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |