Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Tavares 57.2% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 78.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 66.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 82.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
McDavid
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
McDavid
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
58.0% (914)
-10.5%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
57.0% (235)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
57.9% (19)
-11.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Home / Away
McDavid
Tavares
Home
50.2% (400)
57.8% (614)
Away
44.7% (365)
57.8% (554)
By Period
McDavid
Tavares
P1
47.5%
58.0%
P2
48.6%
56.9%
P3
46.7%
58.4%
OT
33.3%
57.7%
Final 5 min
51.3%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 18:32 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 08:46 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | John Tavares |