Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 43.9% vs Tavares 50.6% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 74.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 54.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 58.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 60.3%
39.7%
60.3%
McDavid
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
McDavid
Tavares
Last 5: McDavid 3-2 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
McDavid
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (750)
48.7% (1,202)
-5.4%
Power Play
40.0% (25)
59.3% (305)
-19.3%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (31)
47.9% (121)
-6.0%
On power play, Tavares has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. McDavid is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (475).
McDavid shoots left. Tavares is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,072).
Home / Away
McDavid
Tavares
Home
48.7% (413)
52.1% (841)
Away
37.4% (393)
49.0% (787)
By Period
McDavid
Tavares
P1
38.8%
52.2%
P2
46.8%
50.7%
P3
44.2%
49.7%
OT
45.5%
37.9%
Final 5 min
54.5%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
43.2%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2017 | 1 | 18:32 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 1 | 13:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2016 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 2 | 11:18 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |