Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.0% vs Tavares 54.2% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 73.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 67.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 76.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 73.5%
26.5%
73.5%
McDavid
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
McDavid
Tavares
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Tavares
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
1
McDavid
Tavares
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (862)
53.0% (1,201)
-6.1%
Power Play
42.1% (38)
61.5% (262)
-19.4%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
53.8% (65)
-9.4%
On power play, Tavares has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. McDavid is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (588).
McDavid shoots left. Tavares is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Home / Away
McDavid
Tavares
Home
47.9% (478)
57.5% (762)
Away
45.2% (440)
51.4% (766)
By Period
McDavid
Tavares
P1
45.9%
54.5%
P2
47.7%
53.2%
P3
46.6%
55.5%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.6%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 17:49 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 2 | 13:51 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 1 | 09:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 3 | 15:35 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 3 | 10:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 3 | 04:26 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 2 | 19:11 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 2 | 15:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 2 | 04:50 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 1 | 14:18 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2019 | 1 | 11:40 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |