Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Staal 54.6% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 50.1%
Defensive zone
Staal 82.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 63.2%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 60.7%
39.3%
60.7%
McDavid
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McDavid
Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Staal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
McDavid
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
56.1% (955)
-8.6%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
66.9% (142)
-18.3%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
43.0% (242)
+3.5%
On power play, Staal has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
McDavid
Staal
Home
50.2% (400)
55.4% (663)
Away
44.7% (365)
54.4% (676)
By Period
McDavid
Staal
P1
47.5%
55.1%
P2
48.6%
54.7%
P3
46.7%
53.9%
OT
33.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
51.3%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 07:56 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 17:55 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |