Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Staal 55.3% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 31-19 in 50 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 84.6%
Defensive zone
McDavid 88.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 89.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 87.1%
87.1%
12.9%
McDavid
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
31
(50 meetings)
19
31
McDavid
Staal
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
10
12
McDavid
Staal
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
10
McDavid
Staal
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
7
9
McDavid
Staal
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
55.9% (14,620)
-8.2%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
62.7% (1,745)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
48.0% (2,896)
-4.6%
On power play, Staal has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
McDavid shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,773).
Home / Away
McDavid
Staal
Home
49.3% (4,570)
56.4% (9,663)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
54.3% (9,663)
By Period
McDavid
Staal
P1
46.5%
55.2%
P2
48.7%
55.9%
P3
48.3%
54.9%
OT
40.9%
56.2%
Final 5 min
50.1%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 07:56 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 17:55 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 04:26 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 04:09 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:35 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 13:30 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 17:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 1 | 18:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 17:13 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 13:56 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 08:34 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 05:58 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 09:21 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 09:56 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 17:34 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 17:24 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 2 | 18:53 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |