Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Staal 54.2% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 81.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 56.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 59.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
McDavid
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McDavid
Staal
Last 6: McDavid 2-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
2
McDavid
Staal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
McDavid
Staal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Staal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
57.0% (1,017)
-9.3%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
57.7% (26)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
45.1% (286)
-22.9%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Home / Away
McDavid
Staal
Home
47.3% (387)
54.3% (667)
Away
48.1% (389)
54.7% (662)
By Period
McDavid
Staal
P1
47.6%
56.2%
P2
50.0%
57.0%
P3
45.0%
49.7%
Final 5 min
46.8%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 04:26 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 04:09 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:35 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 13:30 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 17:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |