Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Staal 56.8% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 50.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 75.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 64.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
McDavid
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
McDavid
Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Staal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
58.9% (1,041)
-4.6%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
53.4% (73)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
49.1% (171)
-15.8%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Staal is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (828).
Home / Away
McDavid
Staal
Home
53.6% (507)
59.0% (578)
Away
53.8% (539)
55.9% (707)
By Period
McDavid
Staal
P1
52.6%
57.1%
P2
54.1%
60.9%
P3
54.9%
55.8%
OT
44.4%
20.8%
Final 5 min
52.2%
60.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2022 | 2 | 18:53 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 2 | 07:55 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 04:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 07:17 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |