Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Staal 57.6% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 85.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 59.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 70.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 74.4%
74.4%
25.6%
McDavid
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
McDavid
Staal
Last 6: McDavid 1-5 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
3
McDavid
Staal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Staal
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
McDavid
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
58.9% (1,096)
-7.3%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
68.4% (57)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
51.8% (222)
-15.4%
On power play, Staal has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. McDavid is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (616).
McDavid shoots left. Staal is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (986).
Home / Away
McDavid
Staal
Home
51.8% (415)
57.0% (646)
Away
50.4% (450)
59.1% (729)
By Period
McDavid
Staal
P1
47.5%
55.9%
P2
51.6%
55.4%
P3
55.5%
62.0%
OT
50.0%
70.4%
Final 5 min
50.5%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2023 | 1 | 18:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 17:13 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 13:56 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 08:34 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 05:58 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |