Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +15.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 43.9% vs Staal 58.4% (-15.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 75.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 76.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 81.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 77.7%
77.7%
22.3%
McDavid
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
McDavid
Staal
Last 9: McDavid 2-7 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
3
McDavid
Staal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
2
McDavid
Staal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
2
McDavid
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (750)
59.1% (888)
-15.8%
Power Play
40.0% (25)
66.9% (121)
-26.9%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (31)
52.6% (156)
-10.7%
On power play, Staal has a +26.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. McDavid is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (475).
McDavid shoots left. Staal is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (735).
Home / Away
McDavid
Staal
Home
48.7% (413)
61.2% (600)
Away
37.4% (393)
56.9% (566)
By Period
McDavid
Staal
P1
38.8%
57.5%
P2
46.8%
60.1%
P3
44.2%
59.1%
OT
45.5%
70.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
43.2%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
59.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2017 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 3, 2017 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 3, 2017 | 2 | 08:04 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 3, 2017 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 3, 2017 | 1 | 11:36 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 3, 2017 | 1 | 00:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 3 | 11:01 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 3 | 06:45 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2 | 03:05 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |