Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs Norris 51.0% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 56.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 50.6%
Neutral zone
Norris 50.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
McDavid
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
McDavid
Norris
Last 6: McDavid 3-3 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Norris
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Norris
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
0
1
McDavid
Norris
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
51.2% (886)
+3.1%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
59.0% (83)
-14.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
38.8% (67)
-5.5%
On power play, Norris has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. McDavid is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (679).
McDavid shoots left. Norris is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Home / Away
McDavid
Norris
Home
53.6% (507)
55.6% (487)
Away
53.8% (539)
47.0% (549)
By Period
McDavid
Norris
P1
52.6%
54.8%
P2
54.1%
51.3%
P3
54.9%
48.0%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.2%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 09:37 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 12:44 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 15:35 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 03:06 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 02:58 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:28 | Offensive | Josh Norris |