Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Norris 53.4% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 76.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 55.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 61.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 64.3%
64.3%
35.7%
McDavid
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
McDavid
Norris
Last 9: McDavid 3-6 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
0
3
McDavid
Norris
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Norris
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
1
2
McDavid
Norris
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
53.6% (560)
-5.9%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
56.0% (109)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
53.1% (98)
-30.9%
On penalty kill, Norris has a +30.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Norris is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
McDavid
Norris
Home
47.3% (387)
53.6% (373)
Away
48.1% (389)
54.1% (394)
By Period
McDavid
Norris
P1
47.6%
61.8%
P2
50.0%
51.7%
P3
45.0%
49.8%
Final 5 min
46.8%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 05:54 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 15:40 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 03:17 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |