Scouting Report
Mark Jankowski holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Jankowski shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.0% vs Jankowski 51.7% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jankowski 61.4%
Defensive zone
Jankowski 84.1%
Neutral zone
Jankowski 82.3%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 67.6%
32.4%
67.6%
McDavid
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
McDavid
Jankowski
Last 7: McDavid 5-2 Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
0
McDavid
Jankowski
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
0
1
McDavid
Jankowski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jankowski
0
1
McDavid
Jankowski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (862)
52.6% (701)
-5.7%
Power Play
42.1% (38)
66.7% (12)
-24.6%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (18)
45.8% (107)
-1.4%
On power play, Jankowski has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. McDavid is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (588).
McDavid shoots left. Jankowski is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (538).
Home / Away
McDavid
Jankowski
Home
47.9% (478)
56.6% (424)
Away
45.2% (440)
47.0% (396)
By Period
McDavid
Jankowski
P1
45.9%
49.3%
P2
47.7%
57.4%
P3
46.6%
49.3%
Final 5 min
47.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
46.6%
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2019 | 3 | 02:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 19, 2019 | 2 | 15:30 | Neutral | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 9, 2018 | 3 | 15:11 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2018 | 3 | 14:23 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2018 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |
| Dec 9, 2018 | 3 | 08:50 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2018 | 3 | 04:47 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |