Scouting Report
Mark Jankowski holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Jankowski shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Jankowski 53.6% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 58.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 56.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 58.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
McDavid
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
McDavid
Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
0
1
McDavid
Jankowski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
54.1% (527)
-6.6%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
50.0% (14)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
57.5% (40)
-11.0%
On penalty kill, Jankowski has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Jankowski is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (365).
Home / Away
McDavid
Jankowski
Home
50.2% (400)
53.9% (310)
Away
44.7% (365)
54.6% (271)
By Period
McDavid
Jankowski
P1
47.5%
54.6%
P2
48.6%
56.3%
P3
46.7%
51.9%
Final 5 min
51.3%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 02:06 | Defensive | Mark Jankowski |