Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs Scheifele 48.1% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 79.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 61.1%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 57.0%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
McDavid
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
McDavid
Scheifele
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Scheifele
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Scheifele
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
3
McDavid
Scheifele
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
47.8% (960)
+3.7%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
47.0% (219)
+16.9%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
60.7% (28)
-9.5%
On power play, McDavid has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. Scheifele is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
McDavid
Scheifele
Home
50.7% (513)
50.7% (611)
Away
53.2% (498)
45.1% (596)
By Period
McDavid
Scheifele
P1
52.3%
51.4%
P2
51.6%
47.3%
P3
51.7%
45.0%
OT
100.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
56.5%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 14:12 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 09:58 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 02:52 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 01:48 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 1 | 01:07 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 09:33 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 06:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 19:27 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 06:52 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |