Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.0% vs Scheifele 48.3% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 55.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 73.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 64.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
McDavid
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
McDavid
Scheifele
Last 9: McDavid 6-3 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Scheifele
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Scheifele
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Scheifele
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (803)
48.1% (1,045)
+3.5%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
48.6% (181)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (22)
44.4% (27)
-8.0%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
McDavid shoots left. Scheifele is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (892).
Home / Away
McDavid
Scheifele
Home
51.8% (415)
52.7% (630)
Away
50.4% (450)
43.5% (623)
By Period
McDavid
Scheifele
P1
47.5%
50.3%
P2
51.6%
46.8%
P3
55.5%
47.5%
OT
50.0%
36.4%
Final 5 min
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.1%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 13:05 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 07:13 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 09:50 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 15:06 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 10:24 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:37 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 05:25 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 03:33 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |