Connor McDavid vs Mikael Backlund
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). McDavid wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Backlund 49.7% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 10-10 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 82.6%
Defensive zone
Backlund 78.8%
Neutral zone
Backlund 51.7%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
McDavid
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
10
(20 meetings)
10
10
McDavid
Backlund
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
0
McDavid
Backlund
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
5
McDavid
Backlund
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
5
McDavid
Backlund
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
50.1% (891)
-2.6%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
53.1% (64)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
47.8% (278)
-1.3%
On power play, Backlund has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. McDavid is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (554).
McDavid shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Home / Away
McDavid
Backlund
Home
50.2% (400)
48.1% (580)
Away
44.7% (365)
51.1% (653)
By Period
McDavid
Backlund
P1
47.5%
45.1%
P2
48.6%
54.7%
P3
46.7%
49.0%
OT
33.3%
46.2%
Final 5 min
51.3%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 04:17 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 16:26 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 14:44 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 07:25 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 03:21 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 09:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 04:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 01:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 12:03 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 04:21 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:02 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | OT | 04:37 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | OT | 03:31 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:52 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:40 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |