Connor McDavid vs Nathan MacKinnon
2021-22 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (64% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 53.4% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 12-11 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 66.1%
Defensive zone
McDavid 58.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 66.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
McDavid
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
11
(23 meetings)
12
11
McDavid
MacKinnon
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
5
McDavid
MacKinnon
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
9
5
McDavid
MacKinnon
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (1,002)
45.8% (755)
+8.5%
Power Play
44.8% (29)
48.3% (60)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (15)
27.6% (29)
+5.7%
On even strength, McDavid has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. McDavid is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (367).
McDavid shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
McDavid
MacKinnon
Home
53.6% (507)
49.5% (396)
Away
53.8% (539)
41.7% (448)
By Period
McDavid
MacKinnon
P1
52.6%
50.2%
P2
54.1%
43.8%
P3
54.9%
41.4%
OT
44.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.2%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
53.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2022 | 3 | 12:09 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 22, 2022 | 2 | 19:46 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 22, 2022 | 2 | 08:19 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 22, 2022 | 2 | 04:18 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 22, 2022 | 1 | 18:00 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 22, 2022 | 1 | 07:58 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 22, 2022 | 1 | 05:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 3 | 10:48 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 2 | 03:21 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 2 | 00:04 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 15:07 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 21, 2022 | 3 | 11:51 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2022 | 3 | 07:27 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2022 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 21, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |