Connor McDavid vs Nathan MacKinnon
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings). McDavid wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 51.8% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 13-12 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 58.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 65.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 67.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 64.9%
64.9%
35.1%
McDavid
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
12
(25 meetings)
13
12
McDavid
MacKinnon
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
4
McDavid
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
4
McDavid
MacKinnon
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
9
4
McDavid
MacKinnon
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (889)
44.7% (1,053)
+6.8%
Power Play
63.9% (36)
36.8% (95)
+27.1%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (86)
65.0% (20)
-13.8%
On power play, McDavid has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. McDavid is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (357).
McDavid shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
McDavid
MacKinnon
Home
50.7% (513)
49.4% (553)
Away
53.2% (498)
40.0% (615)
By Period
McDavid
MacKinnon
P1
52.3%
45.3%
P2
51.6%
42.7%
P3
51.7%
45.1%
OT
100.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
56.5%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
51.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 07:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 03:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 03:23 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 10:45 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 10:46 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 05:28 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 19, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 3 | 16:13 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 3 | 16:06 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 3 | 15:57 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 3 | 11:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 3 | 03:58 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 3 | 03:46 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 17:42 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 11:47 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 04:56 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 04:42 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |