Connor McDavid vs Nathan MacKinnon

2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) McDavid 47.9% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-2.2%)
H2H factor MacKinnon leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone MacKinnon 51.5%
Defensive zone McDavid 51.6%
Neutral zone McDavid 50.2%
Result Connor McDavid favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
McDavid MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
8 - 9 (17 meetings)
8
9
McDavid MacKinnon
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 MacKinnon

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
McDavid MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
7
McDavid MacKinnon
11 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
McDavid
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
49.2% (1,266)
-1.5%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
54.9% (193)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
49.1% (55)
-26.9%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +26.9% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. McDavid is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (282).
McDavid shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
McDavid
MacKinnon
Home
47.3% (387)
50.9% (740)
Away
48.1% (389)
49.0% (774)
By Period
McDavid
MacKinnon
P1
47.6%
50.9%
P2
50.0%
51.8%
P3
45.0%
47.1%
Final 5 min
46.8%
51.2%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%
50.0%
47.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%
54.0%
49.9%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Feb 7, 2025 3 09:38 Defensive Connor McDavid
Feb 7, 2025 3 09:18 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Feb 7, 2025 2 08:02 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Feb 7, 2025 2 07:48 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Feb 7, 2025 1 11:21 Defensive Connor McDavid
Feb 7, 2025 1 09:48 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Feb 7, 2025 1 06:54 Defensive Connor McDavid
Jan 16, 2025 3 18:22 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 16, 2025 3 00:00 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Jan 16, 2025 2 13:41 Neutral Connor McDavid
Jan 16, 2025 2 06:17 Neutral Connor McDavid
Jan 16, 2025 2 03:51 Offensive Connor McDavid
Jan 16, 2025 2 00:00 Neutral Connor McDavid
Jan 16, 2025 1 00:00 Neutral Connor McDavid
Nov 30, 2024 2 08:51 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 30, 2024 1 13:50 Offensive Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 30, 2024 1 07:20 Neutral Nathan MacKinnon