Connor McDavid vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 51.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 51.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 50.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
McDavid
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
9
(17 meetings)
8
9
McDavid
MacKinnon
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
McDavid
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
7
McDavid
MacKinnon
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
49.2% (1,266)
-1.5%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
54.9% (193)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
49.1% (55)
-26.9%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +26.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. McDavid is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (282).
McDavid shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
McDavid
MacKinnon
Home
47.3% (387)
50.9% (740)
Away
48.1% (389)
49.0% (774)
By Period
McDavid
MacKinnon
P1
47.6%
50.9%
P2
50.0%
51.8%
P3
45.0%
47.1%
Final 5 min
46.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 09:38 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 09:18 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 08:02 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 07:48 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 11:21 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 09:48 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 18:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 13:41 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:17 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:51 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 08:51 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 13:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 07:20 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |