Connor McDavid vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). McDavid wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 80.5%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 59.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 67.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 66.4%
33.6%
66.4%
McDavid
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
McDavid
MacKinnon
Last 7: McDavid 6-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
1
McDavid
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (650)
50.0% (992)
-2.5%
Power Play
48.6% (72)
64.9% (148)
-16.3%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
34.4% (32)
+12.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. McDavid is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (211).
McDavid shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
McDavid
MacKinnon
Home
50.2% (400)
53.3% (591)
Away
44.7% (365)
49.6% (581)
By Period
McDavid
MacKinnon
P1
47.5%
49.9%
P2
48.6%
53.2%
P3
46.7%
50.8%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.3%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.6%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:32 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 02:38 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 15:55 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 12:57 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |