Connor McDavid vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 46.8%). Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (59% H2H, 95 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 78-70 in 148 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 53.7%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 50.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 53.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
McDavid
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
78
-
70
(148 meetings)
78
70
McDavid
MacKinnon
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
11
19
McDavid
MacKinnon
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
11
12
McDavid
MacKinnon
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
56
39
McDavid
MacKinnon
95 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,358)
46.1% (11,218)
+1.6%
Power Play
52.0% (371)
53.3% (1,412)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (279)
42.8% (502)
+0.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. McDavid is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,105).
McDavid shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
McDavid
MacKinnon
Home
49.3% (4,570)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
46.1% (4,438)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
McDavid
MacKinnon
P1
46.5%
47.4%
P2
48.7%
46.6%
P3
48.3%
46.1%
OT
40.9%
48.4%
Final 5 min
50.1%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:32 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 02:38 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 15:55 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 12:57 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 09:38 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 09:18 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 08:02 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 07:48 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 11:21 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 09:48 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 18:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 13:41 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:17 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:51 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |